2023-10-08 11:44
AI視頻創(chuàng)作案例丨關(guān)于喬布斯在1985年對(duì)iPhone和人工智能的看法丨AI還原喬布斯接受花花公子采訪(fǎng)
喬布斯在40年前是怎樣預(yù)測(cè)智能手機(jī)和未來(lái)科技的?這其中甚至可以瞥見(jiàn)iPhone和AI的影子。
我一直是訪(fǎng)談內(nèi)容的愛(ài)好者。有些經(jīng)典的訪(fǎng)談值得反復(fù)閱讀，即便經(jīng)過(guò)時(shí)間的洗禮也依然價(jià)值連城。喬布斯在1985年的這篇采訪(fǎng)就是其中之一。
我們用AI還原了這篇采訪(fǎng)，本期是上半部分。
全部?jī)?nèi)容由AIGC內(nèi)容制作，原文來(lái)自真實(shí)訪(fǎng)談。
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我們用ai呈現(xiàn)了喬布斯在1985年的這段采訪(fǎng)，在采訪(fǎng)中，我將扮演當(dāng)時(shí)的記者給出問(wèn)題，所有的回答來(lái)自當(dāng)時(shí)的真實(shí)記錄，而喬布斯在1985年對(duì)個(gè)人電腦、智能手機(jī)、未來(lái)科技等話(huà)題給出了自己的判斷，我們甚至可以從這些觀點(diǎn)中看到他對(duì)iphone和人工智能等技術(shù)的卓越遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)。
Interview
We survived 1984. and computers did not take over the world, though some people might find that hard to believe. If there’s any one individual who can be either blamed or praised for the proliferation of computers, you, the 29-year-old father of the computer revolution, are the prime contender. It has also made you wealthy beyond dreams—your stock was worth almost a half billion dollars at one point, wasn’t it?
我們熬過(guò)了1984年，盡管有些人可能難以相信，但計(jì)算機(jī)并沒(méi)有接管世界。如果有一個(gè)人可以被歸咎或贊揚(yáng)計(jì)算機(jī)的普及，那就是你，作為計(jì)算機(jī)革命的29歲父親，你是最有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的人。這也使你變得富有，你的股票曾經(jīng)一度價(jià)值將近五億美元，是嗎?
I actually lost $250.000.000 in one year when the stock went down.
我實(shí)際上在一年內(nèi)損失了2.5億美元，當(dāng)股票下跌的時(shí)候。
You can laugh about it?
你可以對(duì)此一笑了之嗎?
You know, my main reaction to this money thing is that it’s humorous, all the attention to it, because it’s hardly the most insightful or valuable thing that’s happened to me in the past ten years. But it makes me feel old, sometimes, when I speak at a campus and I find that what students are most in awe of is the fact that I’m a millionaire. When I went to school, it was right after the Sixties and before this general wave of practical purposefulness had set in. Now students aren’t even thinking in idealistic terms, or at least nowhere near as much. They certainly are not letting any of the philosophical issues of the day take up too much of their time as they study their business majors. The idealistic wind of the Sixties was still at our backs, though, and most of the people I know who are my age have that ingrained in them forever.
你知道，我認(rèn)為錢(qián)這回事兒，所有對(duì)它的關(guān)注都有點(diǎn)可笑，因?yàn)檫^(guò)去十年來(lái)它并非發(fā)生在我身上的最有深度或最有價(jià)值的事情。但是它令我感到自己老了，有些時(shí)候，當(dāng)我在校園演講時(shí)，我發(fā)現(xiàn)學(xué)生們最敬畏的是我是個(gè)百萬(wàn)富翁這件事。我上學(xué)的時(shí)候，正是六十年代剛結(jié)束而這股務(wù)實(shí)性風(fēng)潮泛濫之前。如今的學(xué)生們壓根不用理想主義方式來(lái)思考，或者至少可以說(shuō)遠(yuǎn)不及此。他們肯定不會(huì)讓當(dāng)代的哲學(xué)問(wèn)題占用他們太多的時(shí)間，因?yàn)樗麄円獙W(xué)習(xí)自己的商業(yè)課程。然而，六十年代的理想主義風(fēng)潮仍然在我們心中，而且大多數(shù)我認(rèn)識(shí)的同齡人心里都永遠(yuǎn)銘刻著它。
We were going to say guys like you and Steve Wozniak, working out of a garage only ten years ago. Just what is this revolution you two seem to have started?
我們本來(lái)要說(shuō)像你們和史蒂夫·沃茲尼亞克這樣的人，只是十年前還在車(chē)庫(kù)里工作。你們似乎開(kāi)創(chuàng)的這個(gè)革命究竟是什么呢?
We’re living in the wake of the petrochemical revolution of 100 years ago. The petrochemical revolution gave us free energy—free mechanical energy, in this case. It changed the texture of society in most ways. This revolution, the information revolution, is a revolution of free energy as well, but of another kind: free intellectual energy. It’s very crude today, yet our Macintosh computer takes less power than a 100-watt light bulb to run and it can save you hours a day. What will it be able to do ten or 20 years from now, or 50 years from now? This revolution will dwarf the petrochemical revolution. We’re on the forefront.
我們生活在100年前的石化革命之后。石化革命為我們提供了自由的能源-自由的機(jī)械能。它在很多方面改變了社會(huì)的面貌。這個(gè)革命，信息革命，也是一場(chǎng)自由能源的革命，但是是另一種形式的自由能源：自由的智力能源。雖然現(xiàn)在還很粗糙，但是我們的麥金塔電腦的功耗比一個(gè)100瓦的燈泡還要低，并且它可以節(jié)省你每天幾個(gè)小時(shí)的時(shí)間。那么它在十年或二十年后，甚至是五十年后能做到什么?這場(chǎng)革命將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)石油化學(xué)革命。我們正處在前沿。
Computers are actually pretty simple. and the point is that people really don’t have to understand how computers work. Most people have no concept of how an automatic transmission works, yet they know how to drive a car. You don’t have to study physics to understand the laws of motion to drive a car. You don’t have to understand any of this stuff to use Macintosh—but you asked.
計(jì)算機(jī)實(shí)際上非常簡(jiǎn)單。而且重點(diǎn)是人們真的不需要了解計(jì)算機(jī)是如何工作的。大多數(shù)人對(duì)自動(dòng)變速器的工作原理沒(méi)有概念，但他們知道如何開(kāi)車(chē)。你不需要學(xué)習(xí)物理學(xué)來(lái)理解運(yùn)動(dòng)定律就能開(kāi)車(chē)。你不需要理解任何這些東西來(lái)使用麥金塔-但是你問(wèn)了。
How about some concrete reasons to buy a computer today? An executive in your industry recently said, “We’ve given people computers, but we haven’t shown them what to do with them. I can balance my checkbook faster by hand than on my computer.” Why should a person buy a computer?
There are different answers for different people. In business, that question is easy to answer: You really can prepare documents much faster and at a higher quality level, and you can do many things to increase office productivity.
what about the home?
So far, that’s more of a conceptual market than a real market. The primary reasons to buy a computer for your home now are that you want to do some business work at home or you want to run educational software for yourself or your children. If you can’t justify buying a computer for one of those two reasons, the only other possible reason is that you just want to be computer literate. You know there’s something going on, you don’t exactly know what it is, so you want to learn. This will change: Computers will be essential in most homes.
那么，今天購(gòu)買(mǎi)計(jì)算機(jī)的理由是什么呢?你們行業(yè)的一位高管最近說(shuō)：“我們給人們提供了計(jì)算機(jī)，但我們沒(méi)有告訴他們用它來(lái)做什么。我用手算支票的速度比用計(jì)算機(jī)快。”為什么一個(gè)人要購(gòu)買(mǎi)計(jì)算機(jī)呢?
不同的人有不同的答案。對(duì)于企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，這個(gè)問(wèn)題很容易回答：你真的可以更快地準(zhǔn)備文件，并以更高的質(zhì)量水平工作，你可以做很多事情來(lái)提高辦公室的生產(chǎn)力。
那家庭呢?
到目前為止，這更多是一個(gè)概念市場(chǎng)而不是真正的市場(chǎng)?，F(xiàn)在在家購(gòu)買(mǎi)計(jì)算機(jī)的主要原因是你希望在家工作或者為自己或孩子運(yùn)行教育軟件。如果不是這兩個(gè)原因，那么唯一可能的就是你想提高電腦素養(yǎng)。你知道有些事情正在發(fā)生，但卻不知道具體是什么，所以你想學(xué)習(xí)。這種情況將會(huì)改變：計(jì)算機(jī)將成為大多數(shù)家庭中必不可少的東西。
The most compelling reason for most people to buy a computer for the home will be to link it into a nationwide communications network. We’re just in the beginning stages of what will be a truly remarkable breakthrough for most people—as remarkable as the telephone.
Specifically, what kind of breakthrough are you talking about?
I can only begin to speculate. We see that a lot in our industry: You don’t know exactly what’s going to result, but you know it’s something very big and very good.
Then for now, aren’t you asking home-computer buyers to invest $3000 in what is essentially an act of faith?
In the future, it won’t be an act of faith. The hard part of what we’re up against now is that people ask you about specifics and you can’t tell them. A hundred years ago, if somebody had asked Alexander Graham Bell, “What are you going to be able to do with a telephone?” he wouldn’t have been able to tell him the ways the telephone would affect the world. He didn’t know that people would use the telephone to call up and find out what movies were playing that night or to order some groceries or call a relative on the other side of the globe.
對(duì)大多數(shù)人來(lái)說(shuō)，購(gòu)買(mǎi)家用電腦最吸引人的原因?qū)⑹菍⑵溥B接到全國(guó)性的通信網(wǎng)絡(luò)中。我們只是處于一個(gè)真正令人驚嘆的突破的初級(jí)階段-就像電話(huà)一樣令人驚嘆。
具體來(lái)說(shuō)，你在談?wù)撌裁礃拥耐黄?
我只能開(kāi)始推測(cè)。在我們的行業(yè)中，我們經(jīng)?？吹竭@種情況：你不知道會(huì)有什么結(jié)果，但你知道它會(huì)是一件非常重大且非常好的事情。
那么現(xiàn)在，你不是在要求家用電腦購(gòu)買(mǎi)者投資3000美元，而這本質(zhì)上是為信仰充值嗎?
將來(lái)，這不再是一種信仰行為。我們現(xiàn)在所面臨的難題是人們問(wèn)你具體的事情，而你無(wú)法告訴他們。一百年前，如果有人問(wèn)亞歷山大·格雷厄姆·貝爾：“你能用電話(huà)做什么?”他無(wú)法告訴他電話(huà)將如何影響世界。他不知道人們會(huì)用電話(huà)打電話(huà)查詢(xún)當(dāng)晚有哪些電影放映，或者訂購(gòu)一些雜貨，或者給地球另一邊的親戚打電話(huà)。
We were warned about you: Before this Interview began, someone said we were “about to be snowed by the best.”
We’re just enthusiastic about what we do.
But considering that enthusiasm, the multimillion-dollar ad campaigns and your own ability to get press coverage, how does the consumer know what’s behind the hype?
Ad campaigns are necessary for competition; IBM’s ads are everywhere. But good PR educates people; that’s all it is. You can’t con people in this business. The products speak for themselves.
Aside from some of the recurrent criticisms—that the mouse is inefficient, that the Macintosh screen is only black and white—the most serious charge is that Apple overprices its products. Do you care to answer any or all?
We’ve done studies that prove that the mouse is faster than traditional ways of moving through data or applications. Someday we may be able to build a color screen for a reasonable price. As to overpricing, the start-up of a new product makes it more expensive than it will be later. The more we can produce, the lower the price will get——
有人告訴我們要小心你：這次采訪(fǎng)開(kāi)始之前，有人說(shuō)我們將會(huì)被“最大的大忽悠給忽悠了”。
我們只是對(duì)我們的事業(yè)充滿(mǎn)激情。
但是考慮到這種熱情，數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元的廣告營(yíng)銷(xiāo)以及你自身獲得媒體報(bào)道的能力，消費(fèi)者怎么能了解到炒作的背后是什么呢?
廣告營(yíng)銷(xiāo)是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)所必須的;IBM的廣告鋪天蓋地。但是好的公共宣傳教育人們;就是這么點(diǎn)事兒。在這行里你沒(méi)法騙人。產(chǎn)品本身說(shuō)明一切。
除了經(jīng)常發(fā)生的批評(píng)——比如鼠標(biāo)效率太低，Mac電腦的屏幕只是黑白的——最嚴(yán)肅的指責(zé)是蘋(píng)果定價(jià)過(guò)高。你想回應(yīng)某個(gè)或所有的批評(píng)嗎?
我們做過(guò)研究證明鼠標(biāo)比傳統(tǒng)的方式更高效地移動(dòng)于數(shù)據(jù)和應(yīng)用之間。有一天我們或許能夠以合理的價(jià)格制造彩色顯示器。對(duì)于定價(jià)過(guò)高，新產(chǎn)品的起步階段使其比后續(xù)階段價(jià)格更高。我們所能生產(chǎn)的越多，價(jià)格就會(huì)越低——
How about people who bought Lisa and Apple III, the two computers you released prior to Macintosh? You’ve left them with incompatible, out-of-date products.
At the rate things are changing, won’t Mac itself be out of date within a few years?
Before Macintosh, there were two standards: Apple II and IBM PC. Those two standards are like rivers carved in the rock bed of a canyon. It’s taken years to carve them—seven years to carve the Apple II and four years to carve the IBM. What we have done with Macintosh is that in less than a year, through the momentum of the revolutionary aspects of the product and through every ounce of marketing that we have as a company, we have been able to blast a third channel through that rock and make a third river, a third standard. In my opinion, there are only two companies that can do that today, Apple and IBM. Maybe that’s too bad, but to do it right now is just a monumental effort, and I don’t think that Apple or IBM will do that in the next three or four years. Toward the end of the Eighties, we may be seeing some new things.
And in the meantime?
The developments will be in making the products more and more portable, networking them, getting out laser printers, getting out shared data bases, getting out more communications ability, maybe the merging of the telephone and the personal computer.
關(guān)于購(gòu)買(mǎi)了Lisa和Apple III的人們，這兩款電腦是在Macintosh之前發(fā)布的，你們讓他們面對(duì)不兼容和過(guò)時(shí)的產(chǎn)品。
以現(xiàn)在的變化速度，Mac本身在幾年內(nèi)就會(huì)過(guò)時(shí)嗎?
在Macintosh出現(xiàn)之前，有兩個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)：Apple II和IBM PC。這兩個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)就像在峽谷的巖石床上刻蝕出來(lái)的河流?？涛g它們花了多年的時(shí)間——Apple II花費(fèi)了七年，而IBM則花費(fèi)了四年。我們用Macintosh所做的是，在不到一年的時(shí)間里，通過(guò)產(chǎn)品革命性的方方面面的勢(shì)頭，以及我們作為一家公司所擁有的每塊市場(chǎng)，我們成功地在巖石中爆破出第三條通道，形成了第三個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。在我看來(lái)，今天只有兩家公司可以做到這一點(diǎn)，蘋(píng)果和IBM。也許這有點(diǎn)遺憾，但是現(xiàn)在就這樣做只是一個(gè)追求名聲的努力，而且我不認(rèn)為蘋(píng)果會(huì)在未來(lái)的三到四年里去這樣做。到八十年代末，我們或許可以看到些
那在此之前呢?
發(fā)展的方向?qū)⑹鞘巩a(chǎn)品越來(lái)越便攜，網(wǎng)絡(luò)化，推出激光打印機(jī)，推出共享數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，提供更多的通信能力，也許還有電話(huà)和個(gè)人電腦的融合
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微信號(hào)：AITalkgina
這里是AI Talk的創(chuàng)作記錄和我的閱讀思考
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